Raleigh's Real Estate Market Poised for a 2026 Reset

The Raleigh real estate market is on the brink of a significant transformation as 2026 approaches.

With mortgage rates expected to ease and a surge in new construction, conditions are becoming more favorable for prospective buyers.

According to recent forecasts, the Raleigh-Cary area is projected to experience a 4.4% decline in home sales year over year, accompanied by a 3.7% decrease in home prices.

This positions Raleigh among the top metros in the nation anticipated to see such declines, alongside cities in Florida and California.

In contrast, the Chapel Hill-Durham market is expected to see a 1% increase in home sales and a 2.9% rise in prices.

Experts attribute this divergence to differing supply and demand dynamics between the two regions.

Raleigh is approaching "buyers' market territory" with inventory levels surpassing pre-pandemic figures and sales remaining sluggish.

Conversely, Durham's smaller size and limited new construction have kept its market more constrained.

Statewide, Greensboro-High Point is projected to face the most significant impact, with home sales expected to plummet by 10.9%, though prices may rise by 4.4%.

In the Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia area, a 2.4% drop in home sales is anticipated, alongside a 1.1% increase in prices.

Nationally, the housing market is expected to take a modest step toward recovery in 2026.

Average 30-year mortgage rates are forecasted to settle at 6.3%, home prices are projected to grow by 2.2%, and rents may decrease slightly by 1%.

Additionally, an 8.9% increase in existing home inventory is anticipated, continuing the trend from previous years.

While these changes offer a glimmer of hope for buyers, the recovery is expected to be gradual.

Existing-home sales are likely to remain below normal levels, and the broader economic and political landscape introduces a degree of uncertainty to the outlook.

For those considering entering the Raleigh real estate market, staying informed and consulting with local experts will be crucial in navigating this evolving landscape.